Nigeria’s new fiscal incentives for deep offshore oil and gas projects could unlock about $50 billion in investment and add close to one million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate within the next four to five years, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
The projection follows the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Project Incentives Tax Remission Executive Order 2026 signed by President Bola Tinubu.
NUPRC Executive Commissioner for Development and Production Enorense Amadasu said the order provides a clearer rules based framework for investors considering large offshore developments.
Nigeria currently produces about 1.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate, but deep offshore fields contribute only about 24 per cent of oil production and 19 per cent of gas output.
Amadasu said more than 4.6 billion barrels had already been produced from Nigeria’s deep offshore assets, but several approved projects were still awaiting final investment decisions.
Nine projects already have approved Field Development Plans, according to the commission.
Among the expected developments is the Bonga South project, estimated at about $10 billion, with investment activity expected to accelerate from 2027.
NUPRC said the new incentives could encourage international oil companies to take final investment decisions more quickly and increase production from offshore fields.
The commission also expects the policy to stimulate related sectors, including marine logistics, offshore services, skills development and technology transfer.
Amadasu said Nigeria could position itself as a regional centre for deep offshore projects if the investment pipeline materialises.
Meanwhile, Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority Chief Executive Umar Rabiu said regulatory certainty would be as important as fiscal incentives in attracting long term capital.
Rabiu argued that investors could manage commercial risk more easily than uncertainty over how regulations would be interpreted or applied.
He said companies considering refineries, pipelines, storage facilities and gas infrastructure needed confidence that approvals would be timely, rules would be consistent and institutions would make predictable decisions.
Rabiu said the Petroleum Industry Act had created a strong legal framework, but the credibility of reform would ultimately depend on implementation.
The NMDPRA said it would continue strengthening coordination with other government institutions so that licensing, inspections and regulatory decisions were handled fairly and transparently.
Both regulators said investment growth would depend not only on attractive fiscal terms but also on a stable regulatory environment capable of supporting projects over several decades.
