The World Bank has revised downward its growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), projecting the region’s economy to expand by 4.0 per cent in 2026 before recovering to an average of 4.4 per cent in 2027 and 2028.
The projection is contained in the June edition of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report, which highlights the impact of ongoing global uncertainties, including tensions in the Middle East, on economic performance across developing economies.
According to the report, the 2026 growth outlook for the region was lowered by 0.3 percentage points from earlier projections, largely due to the expected economic consequences of geopolitical instability and weaker global demand.
The World Bank noted that while the effects of the Middle East conflict are expected to be largely negative for the region, oil-producing countries such as Nigeria and Angola could benefit from higher energy prices.
It explained that increased oil prices are likely to boost export earnings and government revenues for major crude-producing economies. However, countries that rely heavily on imported fuel are expected to face mounting economic pressures.
The report warned that non-oil-exporting economies across the region could experience rising costs of fuel, fertiliser and transportation, leading to higher inflation, particularly food inflation, and reduced consumer spending.
The bank projected that real per capita GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa would remain at 1.6 per cent in 2026 before improving modestly to an average of 2.0 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028. It noted, however, that this level of growth remains insufficient to significantly reduce extreme poverty across the region.
The report also identified rising public debt as a major challenge facing emerging market and developing economies, warning that higher debt burdens could result in increased borrowing costs, elevated debt-servicing obligations and a greater risk of debt distress.
According to the World Bank, debt levels remain closely linked to higher sovereign bond yields and wider spreads on dollar-denominated debt instruments, further limiting fiscal flexibility for governments.
Despite some progress in strengthening fiscal positions across parts of the region, the report noted that many African countries have limited resources to cushion the effects of rising food and energy prices.
It added that monetary authorities are likely to maintain tight policy stances due to persistent inflationary pressures and limited room to absorb external shocks.
The World Bank further highlighted declining concessional financing and reductions in Official Development Assistance (ODA) as factors that could worsen fiscal challenges for several countries, particularly those yet to implement strong economic reforms.
The report acknowledged that ongoing structural reforms in countries such as Nigeria, Ethiopia and South Africa could provide some support for growth. In Nigeria, reforms including exchange-rate liberalisation, improvements in public financial management and measures aimed at improving the business environment were cited as positive developments.
However, the bank stated that the benefits of these reforms may be partly offset by weaker global demand and broader economic headwinds.
Growth among industrial commodity-exporting economies is projected to rise only marginally from 3.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.2 per cent in 2026 before averaging 3.5 per cent in 2027 and 2028.
The World Bank noted that growth forecasts for Nigeria and South Africa have been revised downward due to persistent structural constraints and the wider effects of global economic uncertainty.
Meanwhile, non-resource-rich economies are expected to maintain stronger growth momentum, with expansion projected at 5.7 per cent in 2026 and an average of 6.2 per cent over the following two years.
The report also pointed to challenges facing several African economies, including delays in oil projects in Uganda, funding constraints in Senegal following revelations of hidden debt, and declining cocoa prices affecting Côte d’Ivoire.
In addition, the World Bank warned that food insecurity remains severe in fragile and conflict-affected states and is expected to worsen in some countries outside those categories. It added that reductions in development assistance could deepen humanitarian and health challenges across the region.
While the medium-term outlook suggests a gradual recovery, the bank stressed that sustained reforms, improved fiscal management and stronger resilience to external shocks will be critical to achieving inclusive growth and meaningful poverty reduction across Sub-Saharan Africa.
