Crude oil has retreated to prices last seen before the US-Israel strikes on Iran, as shipping traffic through the world’s most critical energy corridor gradually recovers.
Prices Return to Earth After a Volatile Few Months
Global benchmark Brent crude briefly dipped below $72.48 a barrel — the exact price recorded the day before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February — before steadying at $72.63.
Energy markets have been turbulent since Iran responded to those strikes by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a significant share of the world’s oil and gas flows. Prices have been falling steadily since the US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on 17 June, setting out a 60-day negotiation window on Tehran’s nuclear programme and broader steps toward ending the conflict.
Last weekend’s talks in Switzerland produced a partial lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports — a move that has accelerated the market’s decline.
Shipping Traffic Picking Up — But Not Back to Normal
According to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, the number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz has risen significantly since the MOU was signed. Ships carrying crude oil, liquefied natural gas, fertiliser and other goods are once again making the passage.
The US and Iran have also established a direct “communication line” to reduce the risk of misunderstandings and ensure safe passage for commercial vessels, according to a joint statement from mediators Qatar and Pakistan.
Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of maritime risk advisory firm Marisks, described a “tremendous shift” in recent days, estimating around 80 ships have crossed the strait since Monday following the Switzerland talks. Vessels are using one of two routes: a northern passage requiring Iranian authorisation, or a southern route cleared by the US Navy and deemed safe from mines and other wartime hazards.
Even so, traffic remains below pre-war levels, when more than 100 ships a day transited the strait. Hundreds of vessels are still reported to be waiting in the Gulf.
Pump Prices Lag Behind — and Politicians Are Taking Notice
The fall in crude prices hasn’t translated quickly enough to fuel stations for many consumers’ liking. In the US, the average price of regular gasoline has eased to around $3.93 a gallon, down from a peak of $4 a gallon in April — its highest since 2022 — but still well above pre-war levels.
President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation into major energy companies, accusing Shell, ExxonMobil and others of “gouging” drivers by failing to pass on falling oil costs.
“Oil prices have come down so much and we are not seeing anything at the pump by comparison the way they should be,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office on Wednesday.
The American Petroleum Institute pushed back, arguing that fuel prices “don’t move in lockstep with crude oil.”
British motorists are facing a similar disconnect. Energy firms in the UK have faced accusations of unfairly hiking petrol prices since the war began. The UK’s competition watchdog said last month it found no widespread evidence of profiteering, concluding that average profit margins were “broadly unchanged” between February and March.
