Improving fiscal policies and financing conditions have strengthened the region’s credit prospects, but high debt-service costs remain a concern.
Moody’s Ratings has assigned a positive outlook to sovereign credit conditions across sub-Saharan Africa, citing policy reforms, improved liquidity and stronger commodity-related earnings in several countries.
In its latest regional assessment, the agency said eight of the 25 sovereigns it rates had positive outlooks: Nigeria, South Africa, Namibia, Angola, Togo, Ghana, the Republic of Congo and Zambia. Thirteen were rated stable, while Mauritius, Gabon, Mali and Senegal carried negative outlooks.
Only Botswana and Mauritius remained in the investment-grade category, underscoring the financing vulnerabilities that continue to affect much of the region despite the improved direction of travel.
Moody’s said better policy frameworks, fiscal adjustment and improved access to markets had helped some governments absorb inflationary and external pressures. Nigeria’s inclusion among countries with positive outlooks indicated an improving assessment of its credit trajectory, but did not remove its revenue and debt-management challenges.
The agency projected weighted economic growth of 4.3 per cent for sub-Saharan Africa in both 2026 and 2027. It also expected annual government borrowing needs, including refinancing and deficit funding, to ease to 11.2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2027 from 12.3 per cent in 2025.
Aggregate government debt across the rated sovereigns was forecast to decline from 62.4 per cent of GDP in 2025 to about 56.6 per cent in 2027. Zambia and Ethiopia were identified as countries likely to record particularly notable debt reductions.
The ratings agency nevertheless cautioned that higher-than-expected inflation, expensive debt servicing and weak domestic revenue collection could undermine recent gains. It also cited climate shocks, insecurity and the possibility of foreign investors abruptly withdrawing from African bond markets.
Extreme weather can damage infrastructure, reduce agricultural output and tax receipts, and force governments to spend more on emergency responses, Moody’s noted.
The positive outlook therefore reflects improving regional trends rather than a guarantee of rating upgrades or easier financing for every country.
