The Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics, Dele Oye, has warned that Nigeria’s record weekly foreign exchange turnover should not be mistaken for proof of a deep or resilient market.

Foreign exchange transactions reached $4.375 billion in the week ended July 24, 2026, representing an 83.38 per cent increase from $2.386 billion in the preceding week and the first weekly total above $4 billion this year.

Oye said the market’s ability to process large transactions was noteworthy but argued that high turnover could also result from a small number of major participants buying, selling or hedging large dollar positions. He said the figures did not necessarily indicate improved reserves, wider access or stronger liquidity.

He pointed to the volatility of recent weekly totals. Turnover rose to $3.053 billion in the week ended July 3, dropped to $1.631 billion the following week, recovered to $2.386 billion and then surged to $4.375 billion. According to him, the pattern showed that transaction speed and market resilience are not the same.

Oye also drew attention to a 333.59 per cent rise in forward contracts, from $14.5 million to $62.87 million. Although forwards represented only 1.44 per cent of total turnover, he said the increase suggested that participants were seeking protection against future exchange rate movements while also meeting immediate dollar needs.

He warned that the growing use of foreign currency to price domestic transactions could weaken the naira as Nigeria’s principal unit of account and medium of exchange.

Oye cited the temporary decision by Dangote Petroleum Refinery to price petrol, diesel and aviation fuel in dollars before reversing the policy. He said available evidence did not establish that the company caused the entire increase in foreign exchange turnover, but the episode showed how changes by a dominant domestic firm could create a sudden demand shock.

He called on the Central Bank of Nigeria and FMDQ to publish more detailed information on major transactions to reduce speculation and improve investor confidence. He also urged the government to prioritise long term investment in agriculture, manufacturing, technology and infrastructure over volatile portfolio inflows.

According to Oye, the true test of a healthy foreign exchange market is its ability to provide transparent pricing, reliable hedging, stable access for productive businesses and sufficient depth to absorb shocks without shifting the cost to households and the wider economy.