Financial Derivatives Company Managing Director Bismarck Rewane has projected that Nigeria’s gross domestic product could grow at 4 percent by the end of 2026 if ongoing reforms remained on track, while cautioning that rising poverty levels, food insecurity, and election-driven fiscal pressures posed real risks to the sustainability of the recovery.
Speaking at the 2026 PEARL Awards Corporate Summit in Lagos, Rewane said the Central Bank of Nigeria was likely to keep its benchmark monetary policy rate anchored around 26.5 percent through 2026, deferring meaningful rate cuts until after the 2027 election cycle had concluded. He said pre-election liquidity dynamics historically supported equity market activity as investors anticipated political transitions, and that this pattern was likely to play out again.
He forecast Nigeria’s current account surplus rising to 8.2 percent of GDP, supported by stronger oil revenues, and projected gross external reserves continuing to build on foreign portfolio investment inflows. His global oil price range of $85 to $90 per barrel for 2026, with an average of $95, was revised before the Iran-US ceasefire dramatically altered crude market dynamics in subsequent days.
Rewane said reform was a sustained process rather than a one-time event, and that businesses operating in stable, reform-driven economies consistently outperformed those in environments of policy uncertainty. He called for deeper investment in transport infrastructure, reliable electricity, security, and institutional quality as the foundational conditions without which macroeconomic improvements would not translate into the job creation and poverty reduction that the country’s demographic trajectory demanded.
