Where Nigeria’s economy stood in May 2023 and where it stands now look almost like two different countries, according to the Nigeria Revenue Service, whose new Economic Snapshot Report argues that three years of reform have moved the country from crisis management to genuine consolidation, even as serious structural gaps remain unresolved.
Back in 2023, the report recalls, Nigeria was carrying an unsustainable fuel subsidy, running multiple conflicting foreign exchange windows, pumping oil below capacity and collecting tax through a weak, underperforming system. The reform package that followed, fuel subsidy removal, FX unification, implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act, tighter monetary policy and an overhaul of tax administration, has since reshaped nearly every major indicator. Inflation, which topped out at 34.8 percent in late 2024, had eased to 15.9 percent by 2026. The balance of payments flipped from deficit to surplus. External reserves, just $3.99 billion at inauguration, climbed to $50.11 billion by June 2026, the highest level in 17 years. Debt to GDP fell to 32.3 percent, the first sustained drop in over a decade, even as total public debt rose in naira terms due to exchange rate revaluation, and Nigeria’s November 2025 return to the Eurobond market drew what the report calls a strong oversubscription reflecting renewed international confidence.
Oil tells its own turnaround story. Crude and condensate output rose from about 1.2 million barrels a day in 2023 to 1.9 million by May 2026, pushing past Nigeria’s OPEC quota on the back of tougher anti theft security, PIA implementation and returning investor confidence. Perhaps more striking, the report calls Nigeria’s emergence as a net petrol exporter in March 2026 one of the period’s most consequential shifts, as domestic refining capacity jumped from roughly 30,000 to about 700,000 barrels a day, cutting reliance on imported fuel and easing pressure on the naira. Trade followed suit: a N7.55 trillion surplus in the first quarter of 2026, capital importation up from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, and diaspora remittances climbing to $23 billion as more inflows moved through formal channels.
On the revenue side, collections by the agency now called the Nigeria Revenue Service, formerly the Federal Inland Revenue Service, more than doubled from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N28.3 trillion in 2025, with N21.6 trillion already in hand by mid 2026, a jump the report credits to digital tax administration, e invoicing, four new tax laws and Executive Order 9, which closed leakages in oil sector remittances. Non oil sources now supply about 76 percent of total collections, evidence of a diversifying revenue base, while solid minerals revenue jumped from N16 billion to more than N70 billion in 2025 after tighter regulation and a shift of royalty collection to the revenue service.
None of this, the report is careful to note, means the job is finished. It flags the country’s still low tax to GDP ratio, the outsized share of revenue swallowed by debt servicing, and the persistently large population of out of school children as unresolved weaknesses, and recommends locking Executive Order 9 into legislation, building a fiscal framework for the emerging gas economy, setting up a joint capital flow monitoring system with the Central Bank, and positioning the revenue service as a real time source of economic intelligence for policymakers going forward.
