Just when it seemed Nigeria had turned a corner on inflation, the numbers have moved in the wrong direction.
The National Bureau of Statistics confirmed that the Consumer Price Index rose to 15.38 percent in March, up from 15.06 percent in February, ending a 13-month run of consecutive disinflation that had offered some relief to households and businesses battered by years of rising prices.
The reversal, while modest in percentage terms, carries significant weight. Analysts point to the ripple effects of the Middle East conflict as a primary trigger, with higher energy costs feeding into transport, food production, and distribution across the economy.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, described the development as a warning sign that the structural vulnerabilities underpinning Nigeria’s inflation problem have never truly gone away. Month on month, the headline index jumped to 4.18 percent from just 2.01 percent in February, a sharp acceleration that he said points to renewed price momentum rather than a temporary blip.
Food inflation on a year-on-year basis stood at 14.31 percent, a significant improvement from 25.22 percent recorded in March 2025. But on a monthly basis, the food index came in at 4.17 percent, only marginally below the 4.69 percent recorded in February. The NBS attributed the modest easing in food prices to movements in yam, ginger, cassava, groundnuts, tomatoes, and irish potatoes, among others.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy components, stood at 16.21 percent year on year, also lower than the 27.12 percent of a year earlier. However, on a monthly basis it surged to 4.03 percent from just 0.89 percent in February, a sign that price pressures are broadening beyond food.
The geographic picture is equally uneven. Bayelsa recorded the highest year-on-year inflation at 27.37 percent, followed by Sokoto at 26.03 percent and Bauchi at 23.67 percent. At the other end, Osun, Kano, and Kaduna reported the most contained price increases. On a monthly basis, Zamfara, Bauchi, and Sokoto again topped the list, while Lagos, Akwa Ibom, and Rivers recorded the slowest monthly price growth.
Yusuf argued that energy sits at the centre of the problem. Nigeria’s persistent dependence on diesel, gas, and petrol for power generation, logistics, and industrial activity means that any spike in energy costs travels quickly through the entire economy. Transportation costs rise, food prices follow, and production expenses climb. He estimates that food and transport together account for roughly 70 percent of inflationary pressures when both direct and indirect effects are considered.
He raised a structural concern that often gets overlooked in monetary policy discussions. Road transport in Nigeria is dominated by the private sector, highly unionised, and subject to little regulatory restraint on fare adjustments. When fuel prices rise, transport operators pass the cost on almost immediately and often disproportionately, with little mechanism to slow the transmission.
That reality, Yusuf argued, makes a strong case for investing in efficient, affordable public transportation systems rather than relying solely on interest rate adjustments to tame inflation. He cautioned the Central Bank against treating the March uptick as grounds for additional monetary tightening, pointing out that the current inflationary pressures are cost-push in nature, driven by energy and logistics constraints rather than excess demand in the economy.
His recommendation is a broader policy response, one that addresses agricultural productivity as the most sustainable route to moderating food prices, while tackling the transport infrastructure deficit that amplifies every energy price shock across the economy.
