The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns that food insecurity could sharply worsen in Nigeria and other African nations due to economic disruptions linked to the ongoing Gulf conflict.
In its latest outlook, the IMF warned that rising global commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, and declining foreign aid could reverse recent economic gains across Sub-Saharan Africa.
According to Abebe Aemro Selassie, the region entered 2026 on relatively strong footing, having recorded its fastest growth in a decade in 2025 at 4.5 percent. The growth was supported by improved macroeconomic stability, increased investment inflows, and easing inflation, which moderated to about 3.5 percent.
However, the IMF said the ongoing conflict threatens to derail that progress, particularly for oil-importing countries that are vulnerable to rising energy and food costs.
“A prolonged conflict could further inflate commodity prices and trigger instability in global markets,” Selassie noted, warning that regional output could fall below earlier projections while inflation rises significantly.
The Fund highlighted that food insecurity remains a major risk, with the region highly exposed to global price shocks. It warned that a 20 percent increase in international food prices could push more than 20 million people into food insecurity, while leaving millions of children at risk of acute malnutrition.
Beyond conflict-related pressures, the IMF pointed to climate shocks, including recent floods in parts of Africa, as compounding vulnerabilities and worsening the humanitarian outlook.
The warning aligns with findings from the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, which projects that hunger levels will remain critically high this year due to a combination of conflict, extreme weather, and reduced humanitarian support.
The IMF also cautioned that declining foreign aid is removing a vital safety net for many fragile economies, particularly affecting critical sectors such as healthcare.
To mitigate the impact, the Fund called for urgent structural reforms, including improving governance, strengthening institutions, and boosting productivity. It also emphasised the importance of deepening regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area to enhance supply chain resilience and expand market access.
Analysts say the outlook underscores growing risks to economic stability in Africa, as global geopolitical tensions continue to ripple through food systems and financial markets.
