Presidential candidate of the Accord Party, Dr Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, has said his proposed petrol price of ₦605 per litre would only be the starting point of a broader energy policy aimed at eventually reducing the cost of petrol to between ₦200 and ₦300 per litre.

Hashim, who has made energy security a central plank of his campaign ahead of the 2027 presidential election, said Nigeria could achieve cheaper petrol without returning to the opaque subsidy regime that existed before the 2023 removal of fuel subsidy.

In a statement issued on Monday, the energy executive said the key question should not be how much petrol costs on the international market, but the actual cost of producing crude oil, refining it and delivering the finished product to Nigerian consumers.

He said his campaign’s cost model was based on domestic crude production costs of about $45 per barrel, comprising a standard industry upper-limit cost of $30 and a $15 margin.

According to the campaign’s calculation, a standard barrel contains 159 litres, meaning a benchmark crude value of $57 per barrel would translate to approximately $0.36 per litre when divided by 159 litres. At an illustrative exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar, the figure would amount to about ₦502 per litre.

Hashim added that refining costs, distribution, transportation and insurance would constitute additional components of the final price. His campaign has proposed an Energy Stabilisation Tax of approximately ₦104 per litre, bringing the projected pump price close to ₦605.

However, the campaign acknowledged that the calculation is a benchmark rather than a complete refinery cost model because a barrel of crude does not produce 159 litres of petrol alone. Instead, crude oil is refined into a basket of products, including petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, LPG and other outputs.

Hashim said the broader objective was to reduce the underlying cost of Nigeria’s petroleum value chain rather than rely on international market prices as the sole basis for domestic fuel pricing.

He called for an independent forensic audit of the petroleum sector covering crude exploration and production, contracting, procurement, security, transportation, refining, storage, insurance, pipelines and distribution.

“Show Nigerians the books. Publish the production cost. Publish refinery cost. Publish transportation. Publish insurance. Publish every margin. Let the data speak,” he said.

The Accord presidential candidate also questioned whether Nigerians should automatically bear the full international opportunity cost of crude produced domestically.

He described the conventional justification for subsidy removal as “accounting magic”, arguing that selling a domestically produced product below its international opportunity price does not necessarily establish that the government is subsidising it.

Hashim said Nigeria’s expanding refining capacity offered an opportunity to fundamentally transform the country’s petroleum economics.

He proposed increased support for large-scale and modular refineries, regional refining facilities, petrochemical plants, storage infrastructure and crude evacuation systems.

According to him, domestic refining should not only reduce dependence on imported petroleum products but also lower energy costs, retain more value within Nigeria and support industrialisation.

“We must stop exporting cheap energy and importing expensive products. Nigeria must refine more, manufacture more and export more value-added energy products,” he said.

He, however, cautioned that increased refinery capacity alone would not resolve the country’s energy challenges if domestic refineries could not access sufficient crude at competitive prices.

Hashim also identified exchange-rate stability as a major component of his proposal, suggesting an exchange rate range of between ₦525 and ₦700 to the dollar.

He argued that a stronger and more stable naira would reduce the domestic cost of imported equipment, technology and other dollar-linked inputs required across the energy sector.

According to him, a combination of lower crude production costs, efficient domestic refining and a stronger naira could eventually bring petrol prices down to between ₦200 and ₦300 per litre.

Hashim said the objective was not merely to make petrol cheaper but to ensure that lower energy costs translate into reduced expenses for transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, mining and other productive sectors.

He maintained that government should ultimately generate more revenue from a growing productive economy rather than depend heavily on high energy prices.

“The best revenue strategy is not to make everything expensive. It is to make Nigerians more productive and her manufacturers more competitive,” he said.

The Accord candidate urged Nigerians to use the 2027 presidential election to assess competing economic policies rather than focus solely on personalities.

He said his administration would measure the success of its energy policy not only by petroleum revenue but also by whether lower energy costs improve productivity and economic competitiveness.

“₦605 is where we start. ₦200–₦300 is where we can go. The route is not magic. It is lower production costs, domestic refining, a stronger naira, greater energy production and a government that understands that affordable energy is an investment in national productivity,” Hashim said.