Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s Outlook from Stable to Positive while affirming the country’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’, citing ongoing economic reforms and improved external fundamentals.
In its latest assessment released at the weekend, Fitch said the outlook revision reflected growing confidence in Nigeria’s reform agenda and expectations that policy momentum would be maintained beyond the 2027 general elections.
The agency highlighted key factors supporting the upgrade, including monetary and exchange rate reforms, improved foreign exchange liquidity, stronger external reserves, easing inflationary pressures and rising oil production.
According to Fitch, reforms implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria have enhanced exchange rate flexibility, strengthened monetary policy transmission and accelerated reserve accumulation.
The ratings agency projected policy continuity beyond the 2027 elections, noting that the ruling party’s control of a majority of states and a fragmented opposition could support the continuation of current economic policies.
Fitch reported that Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves climbed to $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, up from $32 billion recorded in April 2024.
The agency also forecast that Nigeria’s current account surplus would widen to 6.4 per cent of GDP in 2026, supported by higher export receipts, remittances and stronger foreign exchange inflows.
On inflation, Fitch projected a significant moderation, forecasting average inflation at 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half the level recorded in 2024, although still considerably higher than peer economies.
The ratings firm further noted that crude oil production has consistently met Nigeria’s OPEC production target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, averaging 1.52 million barrels daily.
It also cited the growing output of the Dangote Refinery and rehabilitation of other refining facilities as key factors reducing fuel imports and easing pressure on foreign exchange demand.
Reacting to the development, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, reiterated the federal government’s commitment to sustaining reforms and maintaining a transparent, market-driven foreign exchange framework.
Despite the improved outlook, Fitch warned that challenges including weak governance indicators, insecurity, corruption, inflationary pressures and heavy dependence on oil revenues continue to constrain Nigeria’s sovereign rating.
