The World Bank Group has warned that climate change could push an additional 5.1 million Nigerians into poverty by 2035 and shrink the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by up to 6.8 per cent by 2050 if urgent adaptation and resilience measures are not implemented.
The warning is contained in the World Bank Group’s Nigeria Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), which highlights the growing threat posed by rising temperatures, floods, droughts, coastal erosion and other climate-related shocks to livelihoods, infrastructure and economic productivity.
According to the report, climate change represents a major challenge to Nigeria’s ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2035 and achieving a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy by 2050.
While acknowledging recent economic reforms and signs of improving macroeconomic stability, the World Bank cautioned that climate-related risks could reverse gains in poverty reduction, economic growth and shared prosperity unless investments in adaptation and resilience are significantly increased.
Poverty Risks Increase
The report estimates that about 138 million Nigerians, representing nearly 60 per cent of the population, were living in poverty as of 2024. It noted that almost half of the population could not afford a minimum caloric consumption basket even if all household spending was devoted to food.
Under a pessimistic climate scenario characterised by higher temperatures and lower rainfall, the World Bank projects that poverty levels could rise further.
“The impacts of climate change are projected to hamper progress in poverty reduction, with the pessimistic Dry/Hot scenario pushing an additional 5.1 million Nigerians into poverty by 2035,” the report stated.
The report also warned that climate change could widen inequality, as poorer households are more dependent on agriculture and outdoor economic activities that are highly vulnerable to changing weather conditions.
According to the findings, spending among the poorest 20 per cent of Nigerians could decline by about three per cent by 2035 under adverse climate conditions, compared to a 1.7 per cent decline among wealthier households.
Threat to Agriculture and Productivity
The World Bank identified declining labour productivity as one of the most significant economic consequences of climate change.
Rising temperatures and heat stress could reduce national productivity by up to 3.8 per cent by 2050, with agriculture expected to suffer the greatest impact.
Agriculture accounts for about 25 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP and remains the primary source of livelihood for nearly two-thirds of poor Nigerians.
The report projects that labour productivity losses in agriculture could reach 6.3 per cent by mid-century, while rain-fed crop production could decline by as much as 3.9 per cent and irrigated agriculture by up to 11.2 per cent under some climate scenarios.
Rising Security and Health Concerns
The report noted that climate change is already contributing to social tensions and insecurity by intensifying competition for land and water resources, particularly in areas affected by farmer-herder conflicts.
It further warned that increasing temperatures and extreme weather events could worsen disease outbreaks, undermine nutrition outcomes and place additional pressure on Nigeria’s healthcare system.
Infrastructure is also expected to face mounting risks. The World Bank estimates that annual damages to bridge infrastructure caused by inland flooding could rise to $172.8 million by 2050, while overall damage to transport infrastructure is expected to increase significantly as extreme weather events become more frequent.
Adaptation Could Reduce Economic Losses
Despite the challenges, the World Bank stressed that decisive action could substantially reduce the economic impact of climate change and support long-term growth.
According to the report, effective implementation of adaptation measures could reduce projected GDP losses to just 0.5 per cent by 2030 and potentially result in GDP being 0.9 per cent higher than baseline projections by 2050.
To achieve this, the report estimates that Nigeria will require approximately $94.6 billion in climate-related investments between 2025 and 2030, equivalent to about 3.6 per cent of GDP.
A further $114.4 billion would be needed between 2030 and 2040, while an additional $73 billion would be required between 2040 and 2050.
“The indicative investment needs for Nigeria’s resilient, low-emission transition are estimated to be US$94.6 billion for 2025–2030, US$114.4 billion for 2030–2040, and US$73 billion for 2040–2050,” the report stated.
Call for Stronger Climate Action
The World Bank urged Nigeria to strengthen implementation of existing climate policies, improve coordination among government agencies, expand access to climate finance, upgrade infrastructure and accelerate structural reforms that support sustainable economic growth.
The report acknowledged ongoing reforms in sectors such as energy, agriculture, health and social protection but stressed that current efforts must be significantly scaled up to protect the economy and population from the growing impacts of climate change.
According to the World Bank, financing for Nigeria’s climate transition will require a combination of public spending, private sector investment, multilateral support and access to global climate finance mechanisms.
The institution maintained that with the right policies and investments, Nigeria can build a more resilient economy while safeguarding development gains and improving the welfare of millions of citizens.
